Author

  • Ugwu, Samuel Chiyeike

    • Department of Political Science, Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Nigeria
    • Nigeria
  • Sule, Kehinde Oluwatoyin

    • Department of Banking and Finance, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Nigeria
    • Nigeria
  • Emerole, Gideon Ahamuefula

    • Imaga & Associates Limited, Enugu – Nigeria
    • Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the relationship between stock returns and trading volume, using daily data of some Nigerian Banking Sector Stocks. It further checked for both the contemporaneous and causal relationship between stock return and trading volume utilizing data covering ten (10) companies from the Banking Sector. Six hundred and nineteen to seven hundred and six (619-706) observations for a period of thirty – six months (36) from 1st March, 2004 to 28th February, 2007, were empirically tested with the Granger-Causality tests. This determined if the Wall Street adage which says, “It takes volume to make prices” was true in the Nigerian Banking Sector. Using the daily data, we first found a negative relation between and absolute value of price changes (return) and price changes itself in the Nigerian Banking Stocks. However, the results from the Granger-Causality test failed to find strong evidence on stock price changes leading volume. This was contrary to evidence reported by study on developed markets but consistent with previous result from the Latin American Market which is an emerging market like that of Nigeria. In fact, in all the ten banks studied, volume seems to lead stock price changes. Thus, we concluded that these set of emerging markets with different institutions and information flows than the developed markets, do not present similar stock/return-volume relationship to the preponderance of studies employed U.S data. The implication of these results was that differences in institutions and information flows in the set of emerging markets are important enough to affect the valuation process of equity securities and warrant further analysis.

Keywords

References

  • Baschi, E., Suheyla, O., & Kursat, A., (1996). A Note on Price-Volume Dynamics in an Emerging Stock Market. Journal of Banking and Finance , 20, 389-400.
  • Berry, T. D., & Howe, K. M., (1994). Public Information Arrival, Journal of Finance , 49(4), 1331-1346.
  • Bhagat, S., & Bhatia, S., (1996). Trading Volume and Price Variability: Evidence on Lead-Lag Relation from Granger-Causality Tests . Working paper , University of Colorado at Boulder.
  • Buiter, W. H. (1984). Granger-Causality and Policy Effectiveness. Economica, New Series , 51, 151-162.
  • Blume, L., Easley, D., & O’ Hara, M. (1994). Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume . Journal of Finance, 49(1), 153-181.
  • Chen, H., & Liao, C. C. (2005). Agent-Based Computational Modeling of the Stock Price-Volume Relation. Information Science , 170, 75-100.
  • Crouch, R. L. (1970). The Volume of Transactions and Price Changes on the New York Stock Exchange. Financial Analyst Journal , 26, 104-109.
  • Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., & Summer L. H. (1989). What Drives Stock Price. Journal of Portfolio Management , 15(3), 4-12.
  • Epps, T. W., & Epps, M. I. (1976). The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixtures-of-distributions Hypothesis. Econometrica, 44, 305-321.
  • Gallant, A. R., Rossi, P. E., & Tauchen, G. (1992). Stock Price and Volume. Review of Financial Studies , 5(2), 199242.
  • Fan, X., Groenewold, N., & Wu, Y., (2003). The Stock Return- Volume Relation and Policy Effects: A Case of the Chinese Energy Sector. A discussion paper 03-15 of the University of Western Australia, Presented at the 15th Annual Conference of the Association for Chinese Economics Studies on the 2nd -3rd October.
  • Godfrey, M. D., Granger, C. W. J., & Morgenstern, O. (1964). The Random –Walk Hypothesis of Stock Market Behavior. Kyklos , 17(1), 1-30.
  • Granger C. W. J., & Morgenstern, O., (1963). Spectral Analysis of New York Stock Market Prices. Kyklos , 16(1), 1-27.
  • Hiemstra, C., & Jones, J. D. (1994). Testing for Linear and Non- Linear Granger –Causality in the Stock Price Volumes Relation. Journal of Finance , 49(5), 1639-1664.
  • Karpoff, J. M., (1987). The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , 22, 109-126.
  • Mitchell, M. L., & Mulherin, J. H., (1994). The Impact of public Information the Stock Market. Journal of Finance, 1, 541- 566.
  • Mestel, R., Gurgul, H., & Majdosz, P., (2003). The Empirical Relationship between Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume in the Austrian Stock Market. University of Graz, Institute of Banking and Finance, Research Paper.
  • Mishra, V., (2004). The Stock Return-Volume Relation: Evidences From Indian IT Industry. Retrieved October 22, 2008 from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/paper.cfm.
  • Morgan, I. G., (1976). Stock Price and Heteroscedasticity. Journal of Business, 49, 496-508.
  • Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L., (1991) . Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts , McGraw- Hill Inc., New York.
  • Ratner, M., & Leal, R. P. C., (2001). Stock Returns and Trading Volume: Evidence from the Emerging Markets of Latin America and Asia. Journal of Emerging Markets, 6(1), 5-22.
  • Rogalski, R. J. (1978). The Dependence of Prices and Volume. Review of Economics and Statistics , 8, 268-274. Roll, R., (1988). R2 . Journal of Finance, 43(2), 541-566.
  • Ryan, P., & Traffler, R. J. (2004). Are Economically Significant Stock Returns and Trading Volumes Driven by Firm- Specific News Releases? Journal of Business Finance and Accounting , 31(1&2), 49-82.
  • Saateioglu, K., & Starks, L. T. (1998). The Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Emerging Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 215-225
  • Silvapulle, P., & Choi, J. S., (1999). Testing for linear and Non-linear Granger-Causality in the stock pricevolume relation: Korean Evidence. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance , 39, 59-76.
  • Smirlock, M., & Starks L. T., (1985). A further Examination of Stock Price Changes and Transaction Volume. Journal of Financial Research, 8, 217–225.
  • Smirlock, M., & Starks L. T. (1988). An Empirical Analysis of the Stock Price-Volume Relationship. Journal of Banking and Finance, 12(1), 31-41.
  • Smith, S. D., (2003). The Ticker. Money Magazine , 1, 22.
  • Sun, W., (2003). Relationship between Trading Volume and Security Price and Return . Retrieved on June 21, 2008 from http://ssg.mit.edu/group/waltsun/docs/Area.ExamTR2638.pdf.
  • Westerfield, R., (1977). The Distribution of Common Stock Price Changes: An Application of Transactions Time and Subordinate Stochastic Models. Journal of Finance and Quantitative Analysis , 12, 743-765.

Downloads

No downloads have been recorded for this article yet. Figures appear here once readers begin downloading the full text.

How to Cite

Ugwu, S. C., Sule, K. O., & Emerole, G. A. (2011). Stock Returns and Trading Volume Relationship of the Nigerian Banking Sector: An Empirical Assessment. Journal of Social and Development Sciences, 2(1), 5-13. https://doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v2i1.647

Share this article

Section

Research Paper

Published

2011-07-15

Submissions

Have research to publish? Journal of Social and Development Sciences welcomes submissions.

Make a Submission