Author

  • Sanjay Rajagopal

    • Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC
    • United States
  • Patrick A. Hays

    • Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC
    • United States

Abstract

We analyze the daily returns on 63 real estate investment trusts (REITs) that comprise five US Small Cap REIT indices, and test for weak-form efficiency by estimating the Hurst exponent and fractal dimension. Fourteen of the 63 firms (or roughly 22% of the firms studied) fail to exhibit weak-form efficiency, based on Classical Rescaled Range Analysis. Two additional self-affine fractal analysis techniques (Roughness-Length and Variogram analyses) provide some support for this finding. In particular, it is found that a majority of the series for which weak-form efficiency is rejected are anti-persistent, with estimated Hurst exponents below 0.50.These results are further confirmed by Lo’s (1991) modified rescaled range analysis, which reveals significant memory at long lags. Overall, the results suggest inefficient pricing for a significant subset of REITs, with important implications for trading and for the modeling of REIT returns. .Some aspects of their returns behavior warrant further study.

Keywords

References

  • Alptekin, N. (2008). Rescaled Range Analysis of Turkish Gold Returns. International Journal of Economic Perspectives , 2, 190-198.
  • Ambrose, B. W., Ancel, E. & Griffiths, M. (1992). The Fractal Structure of Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: The Search for Evidence of Market Segmentation and Nonlinear Dependency. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association , 20(1), 25–54.
  • Ambrose, B., Ancel, E. & Griffiths, M. (1993). Fractal Structure in the Capital Markets Revisited. Financial Analysts Journal , 49(3), 73-77.
  • Anoruo, E. & Braha, H. (2010). Testing for Long Memory in REIT Returns. International Real Estate Review , 13, 261-281.
  • Assaf, A. (2004). Rescaled Variance Analysis of Real Exchange Rates. Applied Economic Letters , 11, 303-306.
  • Assaf, A. (2006). Canadian REITs and Stock Prices: Fractional Cointegration and Long Memory. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies , 9, 441-462.
  • Assaf, A. (2008). Long Memory in International Equity Markets: Revisited. Applied Financial Economic Letters , 4, 433-437.
  • Atiase, R. K. (1985). Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, and Security Price Behavior around Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research , 23, 21-36.
  • Baillie, R. T. (1996). Long Memory Processes and Fractional Integration in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics , 73, 5–59.
  • Brent, A., Morse, D. & Stice, E. K. (1990). Short Interest: Explanations and Tests. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , 25, 273-89.
  • Caporale, G. M. & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2010). Multiple Cyclical Fractional Structures in Financial Time Series. Applied Economic Letters , 17, 1079-1081.
  • Chan, S., Hendershott, P. & Sanders, A. (1990). Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs. Real Estate Economics , 18, 431-452.
  • Choi, K. & Hammoudeh, S. (2009). Long Memory and Oil and Refined Products Markets. The Energy Journal , 30, 97-116.
  • Chui, A., Titman, S. & Wei, K. (2003). Intra-Industry Momentum: The Case of REITs. Journal of Financial Markets , 6, 363–387.
  • Cotter, J. & Stevenson, S. (2008). Modeling Long Memory in REITs. Real Estate Economics , 36, 533-554.
  • Connolly, R. A., Güner, Z. N. & Hightower K. N. (2007). Evidence on the Extent and Potential Sources of Long Memory in U.S. Treasury Security Returns and Yields. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 689702.
  • Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L. A. & de-Gracia, F. P. (2010). Persistence in Some Energy Futures Markets. Journal of Futures Markets , 30, 490-507.
  • D’Avolio, G. (2002). The Market for Borrowing Stock. Journal of Financial Economics , 66(2/3), 271–306.
  • Derwall, J., Huij, J., Brounen, D. & Marquering, W. (2009). REIT Momentum and the Performance of Real Estate Mutual Funds. Financial Analysts Journal , 65(5), 11.
  • Diebold, F. X. & Rudebusch, G. D. (1989). Long Memory and Persistence in Aggregate Output. Journal of Monetary Economics , 24, 189–209.
  • Ding, Z., Granger, C. W. J. & Engle, R. F. (1993). A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model. Journal of Empirical Finance , 1, 83–106.
  • Elder, J. & Jin, H. J. (2009). Fractional Integration in Commodity Futures Returns. Financial Review , 44, 583602.
  • Glascock, J. L., Lu, C. & So, R. W. (2000). Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 20(2), 177–194.
  • Gschwandtner, A. & Hauser, M. A. (2008). Modeling Profit Series: Non-stationarity and Long Memory. Applied Economics , 40, 1475-1482.
  • Hays, P., Rajagopal, S. & Schreiber, M. (2010). Evidence of Long Memory in U.S. Stock Returns: The Case of the 1990s Bubble. Quarterly Journal of Finance and Accounting , 49, 5-18.
  • Howe, J. S., Martin, D. W. & Wood, B. G. (1999). Much Ado about Nothing: Long-Term Memory in Pacific Rim Equity Markets. International Review of Financial Analysis , 8(2), 139-151.
  • Hurst, H. (1951). Long Term Storage of Reservoirs. Transactions of the American Civil Engineers , 2, 770-799.
  • Jirasakuldech, B. & Knight J. R. (2005). Efficiency in the Market for REITs: Further Evidence. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management , 11(2), 123-132.
  • Kuhle, J. L. & Alvayay J. R. (2000). The Efficiency of Equity REIT Prices. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management , 6(4), 349 –354.
  • Kumar, M. S. & Okimoto, T. (2007). Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 39, 1457-1479.
  • Lee, M. & Chiang, K. C. H. (2004). Substitutability between Equity REITs and Mortgage REITs. Journal of Real Estate Research , 26(1), 95-113.
  • Lin, C. Y., Rahman, H. & Yung, K. (2009). Investor Sentiment and REIT Returns. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 39, 450-471.
  • Ling, D. C. & Naranjo, A. (1999). The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets. Real Estate Economics , 27(3), 483–515.
  • Liow, K. H. (2007). The Dynamics of Return Volatility and Systematic Risk in International Real Estate Security Markets. Journal of Property Research , 24, 1-29.
  • Liow, K. H. (2009). Long Term Memory in Volatility: Some Evidence from International Securitized Real Estate Markets. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 39, 415-438.
  • Lo, A. W. (1991). Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices. Econometrica , 59(5), 1279-1313.
  • Mandelbrot, B. B. (1972).Statistical Methodology for Non-Periodic Cycles: From the covariance to R/S analysis. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement , 1, 255-290.
  • Meade, N. & Maier, M. R. (2003). Evidence of Long Memory in Short-Term Interest Rates. Journal of Forecasting , 22, 553-568.
  • Mulligan, R. F. (2000). A Fractal Analysis of Foreign Exchange Markets. International Advances in Economic Research , 6(1), 33-49.
  • Mulligan, R. F. (2004). Fractal Analysis of Highly Volatile Markets: An Application to Technology Equities. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance , 44, 155-179.
  • Mulligan, R. & Banerjee, D. (2008). Stochastic Dependence in Indian Capital Markets: A Fractal Analysis of the CNX Information Technology Index. Indian Journal of Finance , 2(4), 3-15.
  • Myer, F. C. N. & Webb, J. R. (1993). Return Properties of Equity REITs, Common Stocks, and Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison. Journal of Real Estate Research , 8(1), 87–106.
  • Nelling, E. & Gyourko J. (1998). The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns. Journal of Real Estate Research , 16(3), 251-268.
  • Okunev, J., Wilson, P. J. & Zurbruegg, R. (2000). The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 21(3), 251–261.
  • Palmon, D., Sudit, E. F. & Yezegel, A. (2008). The Accruals Anomaly and Company Size. Financial Analysts Journal , 64, 47-60.
  • Payne, J. E. & Waters, G. A. (2007). Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics , 34, 207-224.
  • Peter, E. E. (1994). Fractal Market Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Pyles, M. K. (2009). The Influence of Seasonal Depression on Equity Returns: Further Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts. Quarterly Journal of Finance and Accounting , 48, 63-38.
  • Rajagopal, S. & Hays, P. (2012). Return Persistence in the Indian Real Estate Market. International Real Estate Review , 15(3).
  • Sadique, S. & Silvapulle. P. (2001). Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence. International Journal of Finance and Economics , 6, 59-67.
  • Wang, C. & Xie, L. (2010). Information Diffusion and Overreaction: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade , 46(2), 80-100.

Downloads

No downloads have been recorded for this article yet. Figures appear here once readers begin downloading the full text.

How to Cite

Rajagopal, S., & Hays, P. A. (2012). A Study of the Returns Behavior of Small Capitalization REITs. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 4(8), 457-466. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v4i8.347

Share this article

Section

Research Paper

Published

2012-08-15

Submissions

Have research to publish? Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies welcomes submissions.

Make a Submission