Author

  • WS Nel

    • University of Stellenbosch, Matieland, South Africa
    • South Africa
  • NJ le Roux

    • University of Stellenbosch, Matieland, South Africa
    • South Africa

Abstract

Although peer group selection is a key consideration when performing multiples-based valuations, there is a lack of theoretical guidance on an optimal peer group selection strategy in emerging markets. Principal Component Analysis-based biplots and correlation monoplots are used to assess the valuation performance of multiples whose peer groups are based on either industry classification or valuation fundamentals. The evidence suggests that multiples whose peer groups are based on valuation fundamentals outperform multiples whose peer groups are based on industry classifications, with a combination of valuation fundamentals Rg and RoE emerging as the optimal peer group variable. The evidence suggests that an optimal choice of peer group variable could secure an increase in valuation precision of as much as 41.77%.

Keywords

References

  • Alford, A. (1992). The effect of the set of comparable companies on the accuracy of the price-earnings valuation method. Journal of Accounting Research, 30, 94-108.
  • Asquith, P., Mikhail, M. B. & Au, A. S. (2005). Information content of equity analyst reports. Journal of Financial Economics, 75, 245-282.
  • Barker, R. G. (1999). Survey and market-based evidence of sector-dependence in analysts' preferences between the dividend yield and price-earnings ratio valuation models. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 26(3&4), 393-418.
  • Beatty, R. P., Riffe, S. M. & Thompson, R. (1999). The method of comparables and tax court valuations of private companies – An empirical investigation. Accounting Horizons, 13, 177-199.
  • Bhojraj, S. & Lee, M. C. (2002). Who is my peer? A valuation-based approach to the selection of comparable companies. Journal of Accounting Research, 40, 407-439.
  • Cheng, C. S. A. & McNamara, R. (2000). The valuation accuracy of the price-earnings and price-book benchmark valuation methods. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 15, 349-370.
  • Damodaran, A. (2009). The dark side of valuations, 2nd edition, Pearson Education, Inc., New Jersey.
  • Damodaran, A. (2006a). Damodaran on valuation: security analysis for investment and corporate finance, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey.
  • Damodaran, A. (2006b). Valuation approaches and metrics: a survey of the theory and evidence, 2nd edition, Now Publishers, Inc., Hanover.
  • Dellinger, R. (2010). Business valuation for the practitioner: Identifying the common area of manipulation by the valuator. The Florida Bar Journal , 84(8), 59-65.
  • Dittmann, I. & Maug, E. (2008). Biases and error measures: How to compare valuation methods. Working paper. Rotterdam, Erasmus University, 1-38.
  • Dittmann, I. & Weiner, C. (2005). Selecting comparable companies for the valuation of European firms, working paper, Erasmus University, Rotterdam.
  • Eberhart, A. C. (2001). Comparable firms and the precision of equity valuations. Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 1367-1400.
  • Ernst, D. & Hacker, J. (2012). Applied International Corporate Finance 2nd edition. Franz Vahlen, München .
  • Fenn, G. W. & Cole, R. A. (1994). Announcements of asset-quality problems and contagion effects in the life insurance industry. Journal of Financial Economics, 35, 181-198.
  • Fernández, P. (2001). Valuation using multiples. How do analysts reach their conclusions? Working paper. Madrid, IESE Business School, 1-13.
  • Fuller, R. J. & Kerr, H. S. (1981). Estimating the divisional cost of capital: an analysis of the pure-play technique. Journal of Finance, 36, 997-1009.
  • Gilson, S. C., Hotchkiss, E. S. & Ruback, R. S. (2000). Valuation of bankrupt firms. Review of Financial Studies, 13(70), 43-74.
  • Goedhart, M., Koller, T. & Wessels, D. (2005). The right role for multiples in valuation. McKinsey on Finance , 15, 7-11.
  • Goedhart, M., Koller, T. & Wessels, D. (2010). Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies. 5th edition. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., New Jersey.
  • Gower, J., Lubbe, S. & Le Roux, N. (2011). Understanding Biplots. 1st edition. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester.
  • Henschke, S. & Homburg, C. (2009). Equity valuation using multiples: controlling for differences between firms, Working paper, University of Cologne, Cologne.
  • Herrmann, V. & Richter, F. (2003). Pricing with performance-controlled multiples. Schmalenbach Business Review , 55, 194-219.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2012). World Economic Outlook Database, World Economic and Financial Surveys, IMF, Washington.
  • Lang, L. H. P. & Stulz, R. M. (1992). Contagion and competitive intra-industry effects of bankruptcy announcements: an empirical analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 32, 45-60.
  • Liu, J., Nissim, D. & Thomas, J. (2007). Is cash flow king in valuations? Financial Analysts Journal, 63(2), 1- 13.
  • Liu, J., Nissim, D. & Thomas, J. (2002a). Equity valuation using multiples. Journal of Accounting Research, 40(1), 135-172.
  • Liu, J., Nissim, D. & Thomas, J. (2002b). International equity valuation using multiples, Working paper, University of California at Los Angeles (Anderson Graduate School of Management), Los Angeles.
  • Minjina, D. I. (2008). Multiples and their use for equity valuation on European capital markets. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 11, 22-28.
  • Nel, W. S., Bruwer, B. W. & Le Roux, N. J. (2014a).An emerging market perspective on peer group selection based on valuation fundamentals. Applied Financial Economics, 24(9), 621-637.
  • Nel, W. S., Bruwer, B. W. & Le Roux, N. J. (2014b). Precision, consistency and bias in emerging equity markets. Journal of Economic and Behavioral Studies, 6(5), 386-399.
  • Nel, W. S., Bruwer, B. W. & Le Roux, N. J. (2014c). An emerging market perspective on key value drivers when valuing cross-border transactions into South Africa. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 9(4), 92-111.
  • Nel, W. S., Bruwer, B. W. & Le Roux, N. J. (2013a). The impact of industry classification on the valuation accuracy of multiples in the South African capital market. International Business and Economics Research Journal, 12, 79-102.
  • Nel, W. S., Bruwer, B. W. & Le Roux, N. J. (2013b). Equity- and company-based multiples in emerging markets: evidence from the JSE Securities Exchange. Journal of Applied Business Research , 13, 829-852.
  • Nel, W. S. (2010). A South African perspective on the multiples of choice in the valuation of ordinary shareholders’ equity: from theory to practice. African Journal of Business Management, 4, 930941.
  • Nel, W. S. (2009a). The use of multiples in the South African equity market: is the popularity of the price earnings ratio justifiable from a sector perspective? Meditari Accountancy Research, 17, 101-115.
  • Nel, W. S. (2009b). Methods of choice in the valuation of ordinary shareholders’ equity: evidence from theory and practice. Meditari Accountancy Research, 17(2) , 117-135.
  • Nissim, D. (2011). Ratio analysis and equity valuation: Relative Valuation of U.S. Insurance Companies, Working paper, New York, Columbia University, 1-55.
  • Omran, M. F. (2003). Equity valuation using multiples in the emerging market of the United Arab Emirates. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 1, 267-283.
  • PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). (2012). An African perspective: valuation methodology survey, 6th edition, Johannesburg.
  • PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). (2010). Valuation Methodology Survey. [Online]. Available at http: //www.pwc.com. Accessed: 5 January 2015.
  • Profile (2011). Profile's Stock Exchange Handbook, Profile Media, Johannesburg.
  • R Core Team (2014). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL: http://www.R-project.org/.
  • Roosenboom, P. (2007). How Do Underwriters Value Initial Public Offerings? An Empirical Analysis of the French IPO Market. Contemporary Accounting Research, 24, 1217-1243.
  • Schreiner, A. (2007). Equity valuations using multiples: an empirical investigation, PhD dissertation, University of St Gallen, Austria.
  • Schreiner, A. & Spremann, K. (2007). Multiples and their valuation accuracy in European equity markets, Working paper, University of Saint Gallen, Frankfurt.
  • Sehgal, S. & Pandey, A. (2009). The behavior of price multiples in India (1990-2007). Asian Academy of Management Journal of Finance and Accounting , 5, 31-65.
  • World Federation of Exchanges (WFE). (2013). Statistics. [Online]. Available at http://www.worldexchanges.org. Accessed: 6February 2015.

Downloads

No downloads have been recorded for this article yet. Figures appear here once readers begin downloading the full text.

How to Cite

Nel, W., & le Roux, N. (2015). An Optimal Peer Group Selection Strategy for Multiples-Based Modeling in the South African Equity Market. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 7(3(J), 30-46. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v7i3(J).580

Share this article

Section

Research Paper

Published

2015-06-30

Submissions

Have research to publish? Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies welcomes submissions.

Make a Submission